Gavin Newsom will never ever (ever ever) become President

The 2026 Campaign Cycle is nearing its conclusion, with Democrats poised to take control of Congress per a majority of polls conducted through September and October.

But as the smoke clears and the dust settles, a lot of folks are going to be asking one question:

What, and who, is next?

Having served two terms as President, Donald Trump is barred from serving another, per the Constitution, and thus both parties will be scrambling and battling internally to produce a nominee capable of being our nation's 48th President.

This article, however, is not about speculating who could be the best picks, or who will likely be the nominees for both parties, (though we'll be inundated with articles about just that in a few months) but rather, who won't be walking through the front door of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in January 2029:

California Governor Gavin Newsom.

Searching "Newsom for President" on Google.com will bring you a dozen results from Politico, CNN, and Fox alike about Newsom's ostensible Presidential ambitions, but for your average middle-of-the-road voter, Newsom is an extremely hard sell.

Here are just a few reasons why.

Voters care about Affordability. California isn't affordable.

Rising costs in the Golden State have driven an exodus of affordability-conscious voters towards other states with lower costs of living. Given that affordability drove voters into Trump's arms in 2024 and away from them in 2026, it's safe to say that Gavin, the leader of one of the most expensive states in the entire Union, isn't going to be a very easy sell for voters looking to stop hemorrhaging money in their day-to-day lives. Newsom will need to defend a record of high taxes, high prices, and high spending on the debate stage, when other Democrats have managed to keep their states from the same drastic increases California has experienced.

There are other Democrats that people would actually want to vote for.

The biggest elephant (or more appropriately, the biggest donkey) in the room is former Vice President Kamala Harris, who was denied the Presidency in 2024 by Donald Trump and is still very much able to run in 2028. Newsom has publicly stated he will not pursue a campaign of his own if she decides to pursue the Presidency again. But, okay, I hear you saying, let's say she doens't run. Gavin's path to the nomination is hampered even more by the fact most Americans aren't necessarily far-left or far-right, and most folks are looking for someone who's a shade more centrist. Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear has been touted by some as a strong contender for the 2028 horse race, as has Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. All of these people would be far stronger candidates to appeal to moderate or undecided voters. But Gavin has more problems from the other flank of his party: Progressives. Your average wouldn't back a Newsom candidacy either- not when more aligned potential candidates like New York City mayor Zohran Mamdani, Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and former 2020 candidate Andrew Yang exist. And therein lies Gavin's key dilemma: he's too progressive for moderate Democrats and too establishment for progressives. Too corporate to say he's an outsider, but too far to the left to play to centrists.

He's built a troll persona that is too reminiscent of Trump

The California Governor spent a good chunk of his 2025 "trolling" President Trump. From sharing AI-generated covers of Time magazine with himself on the cover wearing a crown, (as Trump himself would do) to portraying himself as an almost "mirror image" of Trump wearing a sloganeer baseball cap with legions of adoring fans (also AI generated) in a way that seems all-too-familiar. It was indeed somewhat funny, but it also conveyed a clear strategy: fight fire with fire to highlight the President's absurd tactics. Unfortunately, as many have learned, such as Michael Avenatti (remember him?) and national laughingstock former Congressman Adam Kinzinger, trying to play Trump's own game of "loud, bold, aggressive mocking" against him, you end up either going too far and devolving into parody or being too subtle and going over people's heads. Among a lot of voters, "Trump fatigue" is a real thing (people voted for him because they liked his policies, but his personality is still widely offputting) and it's hard to imagine someone who spent their 2025 apeing Trump's persona without the policies that cause folks to vote for Trump being a viable prospect for 2028 voters looking for a more refined, serious Presidential prospect

The Republican Candidate may still ultimately win out.

Alright. Let's say that Newsom managed to secure the nomination. He's given the big speech on the final night of the DNC, the balloons have dropped, and he's stood on stage waving to the cameras with his VP pick, whoever she is. Despite the fact Republicans are heading towards some pretty brutal losses in 2026, there's a very good chance the Republican party could still recapture the White House in 2028, given the right candidate. As an example, Barack Obama's Democratic Party faced a "shellacking" in 2010, yet the resistance towards Obama's policies and disappointment with slow economic growth still didn't help Mitt Romney win the Presidency in 2012- it's very possible Republicans could correct course and improve their popularity enough to volley the GOP nominee over the threshold of 270 electoral votes. If the Republicans nominate a strong candidate who doesn't remind voters of the things they dislike about Trump, there's a good chance a candidate like Secretary of State Marco Rubio or Florida Governor Ron Desantis could theoretically keep Republicans in the White House- a very easy sell if up against Newsom, given Newsom's record of failures in California. Additionally, if a strong candidate in 2028

If you're a Republican anxious about 2028, my advice is to be cautiously optimistic, but also to demand more of your representatives. Good governance doesn't lose elections, but obviously bad governance rarely wins them. 2026 will be a referendum on Trump, but 2028 doesn't have to be.